Estimating Hidden Cholera Burden and Intervention Effectiveness
by Murshed Ahmed Ovi, Andrei Afilipoaei, and Hao Wang
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Cholera remains a significant health issue in many developing nations. Understanding the role of asymptomatic and under-reported symptomatic cases is vital in controlling outbreaks. Our model, incorporating indirect transmission, shows these cases greatly influence spread through bacterial shedding. Key challenges include Vibrio cholerae ingestion and bacterial shedding from reported cases. Model fitting in countries like Haiti, Kenya, Malawi, and Zimbabwe estimates over 88.5% of cases are inapparent, with up to 11 weeks before detection. In high-compliance settings, sanitation and handwashing are most effective; in low-compliance areas, vaccination and safe fecal disposal are preferable for reducing cholera risk.
Estimating Hidden Cholera Burden and Intervention Effectiveness.
